Let's Play Our Game

If you polled one hundred single adults, approximately all one hundred of them would tell you that they don't like to play relationship games.  But what exactly does that mean?  It's different for different people, but it always breaks down to the idea that hiding our feelings and intentions, or misleading our (potential) partners is wrong.  Yet I would estimate that the out of the same one hundred, the full allotment of them have played games at some point in their relationship history.  If they have one.

So what role do games really serve?  And what are games anyway?  Let's begin with the relationship itself.

A relationship can serve many different function for many different people, but to clarify and simplify, we'll assume that the point of a relationship for both parties is to move the couple to a balanced end state in one of two conditions.  They are broken-up, having determined to at least one party's satisfaction that they are not feasible together, or they are married.  Thus we eliminate any "for-fun" relationships, or relationships which do not have long-term goals.  That these extraneous relationships exist can not be denied, but I'm not interested in them and they muddy the water so let's eliminate them.

So the relationship is the process which moves two people from some initial state in which they are not romantically sure of their compatibility to the end state in which they are.  The point at which the relationship ends is often clear.  Either you get married at a very specific and easy to determine point, in which case the relationship metamorphosizes into something else, or you break-up.  Some couples are constantly breaking and reforming which will confuse the situation to be sure, but in general, the end is reasonably clear.

The beginning can likewise be clear, but often isn't.  The relationship, in a romantic sense, is always building on some prior, non-romantic relationship.  Did you ask the cute guy stocking the beans section of the grocery store out?  Or is this a close friend from your childhood with whom you are finally taking the plunge into romance with?  In the first cast things are a little clearer and simpler.  Neither of you know much about the other and your mutual attraction is likely to be similar (and low, you barely know each other!)  But that can change fast, and even the most uncomplicated of beginnings rapidly grows into a sophisticated dialogue of push and pull.

Fundamentally, almost all "games" are about masking desire.  Games can range from acting a bit coy when being pressed for details by a friend of a friend, to straight-out lying to your partner.  Hopefully we can all get on board with the idea that lies have no place in a healthy relationship, even (perhaps especially) a young one.  But there are many different ways to not tell the truth, and some of them are rather difficult to classify right off as lies.  Let's look at an example.

The Three Day Rule
This can be expressed in different ways and even with different time lines, but the general idea is that one should wait, after meeting someone, to call them/text them/whatever them again.  Ignoring this rule and following up a Friday night date with a Saturday afternoon invitation can make one seem desperate and thus unattractive.  Or so goes the wisdom of the rule.  Is that true?

There's a lot of social science reasoning that says that it is.  Even if the other person is just as interested, it tells them that they may be out of your league (they fell so fast!) or that you are just generally desperate and thus will either be clingy, or perhaps value the relationship rather than the person behind it.    These reasons are probably true, but reasoning like this is what makes "game playing" appear so unattractive.

Are we really just playing these games to try to gain the upper hand in a relationship?   Forcing the other person to admit first that they desire us?  Or act aloof so they have to work for our attention thus giving us a stronger position?  Perhaps, and if so then we have fallen hard on the side of negative play.  This is the kind of game playing everyone thinks of when they're asked if they think it's a good thing.  But there's other possibilities.

One may just be a presentation thing.  You know you're musical skills are a great feature to bring up, but doing so yourself may just make you look egotistical instead of showing a sensitive side.  So you get your buddy to bring it up and he acts the wing-man for you.  Is this dishonest?  Not really, it'll be you that is actually singing up there, you aren't showing off someone else's skills, you just presented them in the best way you could.  How far can this road be taken before it starts taking you places that aren't worth going?  I don't know, that's for each person to determine, but I find it hard to believe that anyone thinks they can't make at least a few innocuous stops at the beginning.

However, I think the most important, good reason, for game playing is that the beginning of a relationship is so incredibly volatile.  You really like the guy, you've been friends with him for a few months and he seems great.  You are excited to have a date set-up with him and see no barriers to a long relationship.  You know you're getting ahead of yourself, but he seems marriage material!  Then the date comes and you find in additions to being kind and funny, he's also a great, one-on-one conversationalist.  You had a wonderful time!

If you we're polled right at that moment about your feelings and thoughts for the future you would tell a very glowing story.  But then date two and three come.  You realize some of this stuff is canned and he doesn't seem to respond well when you bring up your personal interests.  He doesn't even like 80s rock! Not to mention that the third time through his witty insights begin to strike you as mostly just egotism run amok   Now you wonder if you'll ask him out for a fourth date or just ignore his calls for a few weeks until he gets the hint.

Which feeling was legitimate and which one was the lie?  Of course all the feelings and hopes and lack of hopes you've had are completely legitimate, but because the relationship is so new, they've been inclined to change rapidly.

But what if, instead of a theoretical poll after date one, he asked you directly?  Or you told him through some well understood, if indirect, means?  Now he has a piece of information about your opinion of him.  How free are you to change it as time goes forward and that information becomes out of date?  How will it impact the relationship to know this thing?  Milestone in relationships are often defined by defining the relationship.

When did you declare that you were exclusive?  Basically assuring each other that you're more interested in each other than with anyone else you could realistically be with at this point.  When did you first say "I love you"?  When did you declare you wanted to be with each other forever?  These moments are so poignant because upon declaring them it is making a definitive prediction about the future.  They only have meaning because you think your at the point where that feeling is, to some extent, above the fray of the push-pull nature of early relationships.

Games, properly used, allow you to form these opinions and feelings without the scrutiny and backlash of your partner knowing about every little change, up or down.  Games allow you to like him on date one, cool off on date two, and then come back and tell him you don't want to only be with him from now on starting after date nine.

Games improperly used, are how you lie, cheat, and manipulate someone else into doing something or becoming something they don't want to do or become.  And identifying the line between the two is not always hard, but is forever crucial.

Wisconsin Transportation

I was hired and moved here to Wisconsin to work on the redesign of the Zoo interchange.  That's the freeway interchange in the Northwest corner of Milwaukee and it happens to be the busiest and most dangerous (by crashes per year) interchange in the state of Wisconsin.  The overall budget (originally) for the project is 1.6 billion dollar but now there's talk of it changing.

Can we get the money to fully finance this, or does it need to take a hit?  First, let's take a look at a few numbers put together by the WTBA:

That's the price of operating a "2013 vehicle valued at $25,000 and weight 3,000 pounds being registered for the first time.  15,000 miles driven at 22 mpg (682 gallons/year) with fuel at $3.30/gallon".  (Note that toll roads and bridges are not included in this, and Wisconsin is one of the two states shown which has no toll roads or bridges)

The Governor plans to switch over to a "vehicle miles traveled" payment system.  Basically you just report how many miles you put on your car and pay accordingly.  In my mind, this is a terrible plan.  It means no or little revenue comes in from those who do not live or register in the state but do drive through it.  It means no or little advantages for those who own and operate fuel efficient cars, it means the revenue is sporadic (yearly) instead of constant (every time you fill up a tank).  It means a whole other system of reporting beyond what we have now.  However, many on the others at the state house would like to just see transportation funding stay where it is.

Well forgetting the fact that infrastructure spending is one of the most efficient government stimuli, Wisconsin would go from having 20% of the state highway in poor or worse condition in 2014 to 42% in same by 2023.  Safety would decrease, a road system already struggling to keep up with the greater capacity demands would become much further outdated, and it's all totally unnecessary.

Politically I imagine it would be much easier to maintain or even decrease fuel tax and then jack-up registration fees.  I would much prefer to see fuel tax increase as it that just makes infinitely more sense from every perspective but I know that's a harder sell.  But however we do it, the current budget submitted for transportation in Wisconsin is foolish.  Why are we cutting spending now?  Why did we decide to do so in one of the most important areas the government actually gets involved in.  If you ask anyone for an example of good, government services even most libertarian will lead with "roads and bridges".  Maybe we should ask the state to keep that promise.

Building a Smoker

 "Building" is perhaps misleading.  The challenge of creating a homemade smoker isn't a matter of construction, but rather of materials.  The idea for the project came from Alton Brown and the execution was helped by several different blogs and websites.  Essentially the challenge is to come up with some combination of parts that is both cheap and effective.  It took me about a month but I managed to meet both requirements.  Right now my smoker is manually controlled, and the list reflects those parts, but I'm playing with the idea of adding a PID and making the temperature auto-controlled.

The essential idea is to use terra-cotta as the insulator, but trying to find large terra-cotta for cheap is not easy.  I built my smoker in the Winter when the selection is much smaller but the price tends to be lower. I found a 20" pot (huge!) from Home Depot for $10.  It was on massive markdown for some reason (not the individual pot, all of that kind) and when I saw it, I knew I had to buy it and start building my smoker.

Then the question became what to get to go on the top?  Alton Brown used a terra-cotta bowl of the same diameter but I couldn't find one.  At least not for under around $150 which would defeat the whole point.  I toyed with different ideas of what to do; at one point I had the idea to use a trash can lid filled with dirt but I couldn't figure out what to use to seal the bottom.  I thought about just buying another 20" pot and inverting it but it was simply far too heavy.

Finally, a very helpful Home Depot associate found one last concrete paver they had in stock that was 20" square.  It had a chip on it so he sold it to me for 50 cents: perfect!  I drilled a hole through it so I could put a thermometer in that I could read.  I got a charcoal grate (cheaper than an official one) some u-bolts to pick up the grate with, a hot plate I could take apart and a pan to put the wood on.  I had a thermometer to use already so I didn't price that, but here's my list (hyperlinks when possible):

Item

Quantity

Price

U-Bolt	2	$       3.98
Masonry Paver	1	$       0.50
Bricks	3	$       1.47
Ext Cord	15 ft	$       2.69
Terra Cotta Pot	20 in	$    10.03
Pot Feet	3	$       2.79
Charcoal Grate	1	$    10.99
Hot Plate	750W	$    12.16
		$    44.61

Under $50!  I used the bricks and pot feet to elevate the pot above the ground which both leaves room for the hot plate (which I disassembled so I could put the heating element inside the pot but leave the plastic controls down on the bottom) and so that you can get air-flow through the drain hole at the bottom.

I got 16 pounds of boston butts from Sam's club (which is two of them) and 5 pounds of smoker wood chunks from Home Depot for under $20 and under $7 respectively.  Which made for two full smokes in total.  I found soaking the wood for a few hours prior led to hotter, longer smokes from those chunks.

Porcupine Mountains: December 2012

I took a little, two-night backpacking trip through the Porcupine Mountains at the end of the year, and here's my report.  I left Saturday morning from the Milwaukee area and managed to slide off the interstate by about 8:30am, 2.5 hours into my trip.  Had to get a tow truck to pull me up from the bottom of the embankment, which took about 1.5 hours from when I called to when I was out.  So that was an auspicious beginning, and between the delay and the road conditions (I drove really slowly after that) it ended up taking me 8.5 hours to get there instead of the 6 I had planned on.

But I got there, self-registered and got on the trail by 2:30pm.  The sun set at 4:15pm so I had limited time.  I left from the park headquarters (one of the few places you can get by car) and was hoping to at least get to the flats below Government Peak before I set up camp.  However, due to the 2.5 hour loss I realized that was no longer feasible.  I went up through the cross-country ski trails at first, until they forked off from the hiking trails and then it was up to me to find my way.  It was snowing and getting dark but they've done a great job marking everything so it really was not that bad.

One of the cross-country ski trails I followed

I got a bit worried about light and cold.  It was in the teens or high single digits the whole time I was there, and colder in the valleys next to the rivers.  The problem I had was that the sun was setting and I was still right next to a river.  Plus I had never set up my little back-packing tent up on snow before (it's not designed to be set-up that way) and I was nervous about doing that in the dark.  So when the trail began to climb out of the ravine above Trap Falls I found the first, vaguely flat spot and set up camp.  It was 4:30 by that point, snowing and pretty dark.  Still I got everything put together and myself in the sleeping bag by 5:00.  One of the advantages of not bringing a stove: you don't have to cook anything.

My tent the next morning.  A clever use of twigs and one long piece of string I had brought along is what held this thing up. As you can see, it snowed an inch or two on me that night.

I had forgotten how long winter nights are when you can't do anything in the dark.  Sunset at 4:15 and sunrise at 7:45 doesn't just mean you only have 8.5 hours of daylight in which to get where you're going, it also means over 12 hours of lying in your tent at night, not doing anything.  It gets a little chilly and claustrophobic knowing that, especially since my tent isn't exactly roomy.  But I got more sleep than I anticipated and when the day came: I was ready to go!

Up and over Government peak I actually met two parties.  One guy who had gone to the peak the previous night and was hiking out that day, and a couple who went to mirror lake and were going to spend sometime wandering around in the area.  I was surprised: I figured I was the only one dumb enough to backpack in these conditions!

View from Government Peak

For warm gear I wore my thermals under my normal hiking gear along with some light, utility gloves.  I also brought a very warm jacket, a rain coat and incredibly warm mittens.  I didn't wear any of those things while hiking and as long as I kept moving I was fine.  It was amazing though, how fast I cooled down if I stopped.  I found if I stopped hiking for more than 30 seconds, I could feel my core temperature dropping.  More than about 3 minutes and I'd start shivering.  My breaks were pretty short as a result.

Me on top of Government Peak.  I backpack with the old-school, exterior frame pack (they haven't made any in decades). The clothing is what I hiked in for the whole trip: baseball cap, ear warmers, hiking shirt and pants with thermal under-layer  light gloves, gators and hiking shoes.  If you kept moving anything else was too warm and made you sweat.  If you stopped it was far too cold.

One big surprise was having to ford a river: everywhere else I'd been in the park had bridges.  In fact even the marshes were bridged!  But not this river: it was ford or go back, and I didn't have the supplies for turning around.  It ended up not being that bad.  Lower water levels in the winter meant that if I was careful I wouldn't have to step anywhere deeper than 4-6 inches of running water.  Which is good because I only had light hiking boots and gators so I couldn't really handle anything more sever.  I ended up literally running across the whole thing.

The ford I had to cross (I actually crossed downstream, just out of picture). Trust me: it was worse than it looks.

I made it down to the shores of Lake Superior and kept walking.  Two things were in my mind: I didn't want to have to drive through snow and dark the next day after my experience on Saturday (this turned out to be a non-event but I didn't know it at the time) and I was running out of water.  I'd brought three liters, which should be enough for a about one day in the winter (I typically use 5 liters for just a day hike in the summer), and a pump.  Only, other than the river I had to ford (and where I was not in a mental state to think about pumping water) there were no really feasible places to pump water.  Probably a few that would've worked if I had to make them, but no good ones.  And since the pump can break if used improperly in sub-freezing temperatures I just hadn't used it.

So I kept walking as long as I thought prudent (I had a headlamp, but the idea of losing the trail after it got dark...)  Around 5:15 I finally stopped.  I was pretty thirsty, as I hadn't been drinking enough water all trip, but I had less than a quarter of a liter left, and about 10 miles to go the next day.  So I skipped eating anything and set-up camp.  I camped right by the shore (next to "Buckshot Cabin") and so I took some time before heading into my tent to admire the stars and the shore.  It is gorgeous, and the ice build-up there just added to the majesty.

The shore of Lake Superior

The sun setting as I tried to get as far as possible before I couldn't see the trail.

The stars over Lake Superior.  This was actually pretty hard to get without a tripod, but what an experience to be there!

Off to bed and a lot of rolling around until morning.  I got out around 6:15am and used my headlight to get everything packed away.  It took a little longer because the wind had picked up quite a bit by then, so by the time I was going we were already into nautical twilight, and I was able to put my headlight away after just 15 minutes or so of walking.  The trail winds up to the road and dead ends there.  A little ways down the road you can get back on a trail, but it's a sequitious route with a non-trivial amount of climbing (at least for the Midwest) and I was worried about water.  I drank my last bit just before I hit the road and I could tell I was experiencing some effects from dehydration.  So I stuck to the road.  It's closed to everyone except snowmobiliers, and I didn't see any of them the whole way back.  I did see their tracks though, and the hard snow made for a very fast pace.

I finally turned off onto a little side trail and followed it back to the park headquarters: success!  Of course the water I left in the car was completely frozen so it was still a while until I had anything to drink (and even then it burned my throat) but I had made it, and had a great time out in the wilderness.  Plus: I stayed on the road the whole way back: amazing, right? 

Changing the Odds

So far, most of my entries have been about general analysis of probabilities and their consequences. I don't have access to anything like the database I would need to look at anything more than the "average" single. Do we represent a standard probability curve, or are we perhaps, bi-modal? Do two deviations (~90%) stay within a few percentage points or does it cross over into probabilities so extreme they're virtual guarantees? I simply have no way to determine this. I know in a very vague way what the odds are based on standard bell curve distribution and I see that the results are that some are married and some are not. Experience from other areas strongly suggests that some that are not married actually had a very high probability of getting married but due to unlikely situations: did not. And of course the reverse is true is well: those who got married who really didn't have a great chance to do so also exist.

However, experience also suggests that a differentiation does exist. Some aremore likely to pair up than others. Which means we can change the odds in our favor. So Let's take a look at some fundamentals.
I'm currently single but wish to be married. In order for that to happen, to basic events must occur. I must come to the point where I want to marry someone (someone specific) and she must come to the point that she wishes to marry me (not true for all societies, but true for mine and for most who are likely to read this so I'll stick with it). Let's stay with random variables for now. There exists some probability, Let's call it P_m (P sub me) that a particular girl who has crossed my path will interest me, cause me to take action, and ignoring her wishes on if she wishes to date me or not, after I date her I will wish to marry her. Then there's some probability, P_h (P sub her  ) that a random girl would have the same experience (again ignoring if I'm interested in her at all) would end up wanting to marry me. In this situation the chance of me marrying any random girl is as follows:

P_m*P_h

So if I would want to marry one out of every ten girls, and one out of every ten girls would want to marry me it would be:

0.1*0.1, 0.01, or 1% of all girls (Note that this is half as likely as I calculated the actual value is in other places, and that's if I actually wanted to marry 10% of all women!)

Since marriage only happens once, the chance of being married after encountering 'n' people is this:

1-(1-P_m*P_h)^n

Again, if the chances were 1/10 in both directions and I encountered, let's just say, 15 girls, the chance I would marry one is:

1-(1-0.1*0.1)^15 or about 14%

A few words about definitions; key words are "encountered", "girl" (or "guy") and "want". The definition of all these words is very important for calculating probabilities. For example, if "encountered" means "saw them" then the number of encounters goes sky high. If "girl" or "guy" just means "anyone of the opposite gender" then the probabilities, likewise, skyrocket. If "want" means only that we would have a successful marriage, once more the probability goes up. But of course it doesn't, because in any of those cases P_m and P_h go down to compensate. So I will pick situationally meaningful definitions. 

“Encountered” means, let’s say, spending 6 months in my ward. Thus the barrier for “encounter” is very high. “Girl” (or for those playing along at home “guy”) means someone who is the appropriate age and LDS (again, high entrance hurdle). “Want” means that there would be enough desire before dating to spark dating, enough sparks to begin a committed relationship, and enough love to ignite a proposal (or acceptance thereof). So another high entrance requirement. These high requirements allow P_m and P_h to be quite low. If, for instance, we didn’t require “girl” or “guy” to mean LDS, then P_m would drop almost to zero, as I’m only interested in LDS girls when it comes to marriage. So it makes more sense to require it, as we would merely have to do an extra step of computations and arrive back at the same, basic number.

Now that I’ve lost almost everyone’s interest, let’s hit a bit more qualitative point and ask: so what? I do not intend to try to estimate either P_m or P_h, meaning I will not be calculating the actual probability, so again: so what? Well I want to use this set-up to look at what we can do to alter the odds.

The key equation has 3 variables, but I actually hid a 4th variable in it that you didn’t see because … well I hid it. The three visible ones are: P_m, P_h, and n. The odds I like someone, the odds someone likes me, and the number of someones I meet. The hidden variable stems from the fact that I assumed P_m and P_h are independent variables; meaning I assumed that the fact that I like someone makes them no more likely to be interested in me. This is not true; being liked makes you more likely to like (follow that?) and if I like someone it’s probably based partially on shared interests. Meaning the reverse is true. So P_h is actually a function of P_m (P_h is a function of P_m) and by changing the dependence of these variables, we can again alter the final probability.

So conclusion one is this: to increase by chance of marriage I can change any one (or any combination) of these variables:

1) How likely I am to love a random female.2) How likely a random female is to love me3) How many females I meet4) How correlated my loving someone is to that someone loving me

Death is what waits behind every door; it is what hides in the dark, waiting behind my eyelids.  It is the pressure that pushes back in the night.  Not the unlikely outcome of some dangerous venture but rather the inevitable conclusion of all that I have done.  Built into every creation, the border of every achievement it is the answer to every question I have asked.  All things end, death has dominion over every story.

Beauty in the dark, scarlet lace sewn into every hem.  Moving on her throne she can survey it all.  What is it too rule but too destroy?  The end of ever story, yes, the final noise in every cry torn from every throat.  What is beauty but death: is death not beautiful?  No great work survives itself, we must find fulfillment in our endings.  The story of the heart can not be judged until the beating ceases.

New Home

Well, I moved in.  Finally.  And after work on the home from the construction side and work on the home from the putting everything where I want it side, I finally took some pictures.

Front View

View of the (West) Side

View of the Back (With Leaves!)

View from the Front Entrance

The Kitchen from the Entrance

The Kitchen from the other Corner of the Kitchen

The (West/Front Entrance) Side Hallway (Main Bedroom on the Right)

Master Bedroom from Hallway

Master Bedroom from Corner

Living Area from Same Hallway

Living Room from Southwest Corner

Living Room from South-Center

Living Room from Southeast Corner

What to Take Backpacking (List and Weights)

Here's the list I put together for a standard, 3 day backpacking trip.  I got all the weights using a digital, kitchen scale that is accurate to the nearest 0.05 ounce (or I assume it's accurate, these things tend to be pretty good).  I tend to go heavy on food since I'm always concerned about running out, and since I enjoy photography, my camera equipment tends to run heavy as well.  On the other end, I choose not to go with a stove (and thus no freeze-dried food).  I found it didn't bother me in the slightest to not have a hot meal and I enjoyed not having to deal with the pain or extra time of cooking.

Item	Count	Weight (oz)	Total Weight (oz)	Included
Advil (1 day)	3	0.20	0.60	o
Air Mattress	1	39.85	39.85	o
Bear Bells	1	1.30	1.30	o
Bear Spray	1	15.00	15.00	o
Bear Spray Holster	1	1.30	1.30	o
Boots	1	43.80	43.80	o
Bug Repellent	1	2.00	2.00	o
Camera	1	36.50	36.50	o
Camera Bag	1	10.25	10.25	o
Candy Bar	10	0.60	6.00	o
Cheese (1 day)	3	3.87	11.60	o
Clothes Pin	4	0.05	0.20	o
Duct Tape	1	0.45	0.45	o
Ear Muffs	1	1.35	1.35	o
Energy Goo	10	1.50	15.00	o
Gloves	1	2.15	2.15	o
GPS	1	5.30	5.30	o
Hat (Sun)	1	3.60	3.60	o
Hat (Warm)	1	1.80	1.80	o
Headlight	1	2.80	2.80	o
Keys	1	1.45	1.45	o
Knife	1	2.60	2.60	o
Map	2	2.15	4.30	o
Matches	2	0.25	0.50	o
Pack	1	66.50	66.50	o
Peanuts (1 day)	3	2.00	6.00	o
Protein Bar	2	2.60	5.20	o
Rain Coat	1	2.75	2.75	o
Raisins (1 day)	3	3.00	9.00	o
Rope (ft)	48	0.05	2.25	o
Sleeping Bag	1	47.10	47.10	o
Socks	2	1.80	3.60	o
Straps	2	0.60	1.20	o
Stuff Sack (Extra)	1	2.35	2.35	o
Summer Sausage (1 day)	3	3.00	9.00	o
Sun Screen	1	2.60	2.60	o
Tent	1	51.75	51.75	o
Toilet Paper (1 day)	3	0.30	0.90	o
Trash Bag	1	1.40	1.40	o
Wallet	1	4.45	4.45	o
Washcloth	1	2.45	2.45	o
Water (Liter)	5	33.81	169.07	o
Water Bladder	1	7.55	7.55	o
Water Bottle	2	0.95	1.90	o
Water Filter	1	13.30	13.30	o
Water Shoes	1	17.10	17.10	o
Ziplock Bag	3	0.07	0.20	o
			637.32
		39 lb	13.32 oz